COVID 19 – Urban Planning Dimensions Of Pandemic Preparedness

We should have known it was coming.

In 2016, the Commission on Creating a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future warned that “the conditions for infectious disease emergence and contagion are more dangerous than ever,” citing increasing urbanisation, easy of mobility, and overpopulation as the major contributing factors. They cautioned there was a 20 percent chance that four pandemics could “unsettle the globe” over the next century.

Two years later Bill Gates said, “Given the continual emergence of new pathogens and the ever-increasing connectedness of our world, there is a significant probability that a large and lethal modern-day pandemic will occur in our lifetime.”

But before both these statements – almost 200 years before, in fact – it was Louis Pasteur, the French biologist who first proved that germs cause disease, who gave us this chilling prediction: “The microbes will have the last word.”

Whether this proves to be true or not remains to be seen, but one thing is abundantly clear: Disease not only changes the way we live our lives, it influences the way we build our cities.

Before COVID-19

Although it’s hard to remember, given the staggering amount of interest focused on the current Corona virus crisis, COVID-19 is not the first pandemic the world has ever seen. Nor is it the first virus to attract the attention of city planners. Throughout history, city structures and planning practices have been impacted by disease. Conversely, the way disease spreads has been impacted by the manner in which cities are designed.

In the mid 19th Century, for example, London’s entire sanitation system was redesigned and rebuilt as a direct result of no fewer than four outbreaks of cholera.

In 1918, New York City fell victim to an outbreak of Spanish Flu. At the time, with a population of over five million people – the largest of any city at the time – New York was a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. Population density was high, with big families crammed into small houses, and commuters crowded into the subway.

The Situation Today

In the past 20 years, we’ve seen no fewer than seven significant viral outbreaks – SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Ebola, Zika and, of course, COVID-19 – in multiple countries across the world.

The United Nations estimates that by 2050, over six billion people (up from four billion today) will live in what we call urban areas. Traditionally, planning experts and social scientists have always believed urbanisation is a more sustainable form of development. People living more densely means resources are used more efficiently, reducing the environmental impact. But the more concentrated the population, the higher the risk of exposure to contagious diseases.

Cities are currently not being built with the ultimate aim of being able to be sealed off if necessary. Just the opposite, in fact. Many are designed to make access in and out as quick and easy as possible for residents, workers and tourists. So, is it time to completely rethink the way we design our cities?

“I wouldn’t say we have thought about how to close down a whole city, because that’s really rare,” says Fei Chen, an urban design lecturer at the University of Liverpool. “But urban planners would be wise to consider the services that citizens might need if their city were on lock-down because of a disaster — such as healthcare clinics for individual neighbourhoods so people don’t have to travel far from their homes for treatment.

“What really should be considered in urban planning is how you could provide the best, most efficient healthcare to residents. I don’t think a quarantine is really something we should make a priority when we plan a city.”

So, What Should We Be Doing?

Outbreaks are likely to be a regular part of our future. If population density is part of the problem, should we be looking at spreading out our cities instead? Possibly. But such a change would necessitate a more extensive public transport system to ensure connectivity, which then brings with it additional environmental and sustainability issues. Perhaps then, we should be looking at decentralising services so that each neighbourhood has access to quality healthcare, food delivery and other essentials?

Ultimately, we need to understand more about the nature of outbreaks – how they occur and how they’re related to the social, economic, spatial and ecological changes our rampant urbanisation brings. If we can create urban landscapes in such a way that their very design helps stem future outbreaks, then we can curb the spread of infectious disease without needing to rely on the drastic, disruptive and socially restrictive measures we’re seeing introduced by our governments to tackle COVID-19.

At Ace Environmental Services we approach land use management applications based on the densification of cities and staying within the urban edge – but we do not stray away from development in peri-urban areas. It is also important to have an integrated city through public transport linkages.

ACE Environmental Solutions is a multi-specialised consultancy providing total integrated Environmental, Telecommunications and Town Planning solutions to the public and private sector. We provide comprehensive environmental management, assessment, development planning and permitting, site acquisitions and compliance services to our clients, including specialist investigation studies.  We patented and just launched an Enviro-Tower that is totally off the grid and is not affected by load-shedding, power outages and can be erected in areas with no existing electricity infrastructure.

Please contact us to continue the discussion –

GM Visagie | MD – Ace Environmental Solutions | 012 663 5200 | gm@ace-env.co.za